My own forecast: FCA will sell more than 5m cars in 2018. Happy new year!

FCA was supposed to sell 7 million cars in 2018 based on the latest plan revealed in May 2014. As expected, the company will not meet that target, which was revised in 2016. By that time it was clear that Marchionne was being too optimistic or had a merger in mind. Today the company is still looking for someone to get married as its global sales still lag behind the big auto makers. The good news is that FCA is expected to increase its deliveries in 2018.

My own estimates show that FCA will be able to grow in sales volume in 2018 by 6,3% compared to 2017. Its global sales are expected to reach 5,12 million units by the end of the year, which is 300.000 more cars than in 2017. The total is the result of a forecast made by model and market, based on several variables such as each models’ life cycle situation, the forecast by country, and the possible restylings and new launches.

I was particularly ambitious with the forecasts for the latest models, or the ones that are supposed to hit the markets in the coming months. Even if their numbers are high, especially in the case of the Jeep Compass and Ram Pickup, the forecast is realistic and takes into account the reality of global economies and not what I think the company should be selling.

My own estimates indicate that FCA sold 4,82 million cars in 2017. The drivers of growth in 2018 will be Jeep and RAM, both posting double-digit increases and boosted by the arrival of new cars, such as the Jeep Compass, the updated Cherokee, and the all-new Ram Pickup. Alfa Romeo will also contribute to higher volumes, as well as Maserati. In the opposite side there will be Fiat, Dodge, Chrysler and Lancia with negative changes.

As the new launches will mostly hit American market, a big part of the growth in 2018 will come from NAFTA region, with USA’s volume increasing by 5,7%. But the strongest growth will come from Brazil, where the economic situation is improving, and China, where Jeep will consolidate its position. Argentina, Mexico and India will also show very solid results in 2018.

The bad news will come from EMEA region, where we expect to see a double-digit fall in the UK, France and Germany. Italy will remain as the second largest market for FCA, but will also record a drop. The reason for this negative result is explained by the fact that the company won’t have any important launch in 2018, and the current top-sellers get aged. In fact the Fiat 500 in Europe, and the Fiat Panda in Italy will drive the fall this year.

Conclusion

Once again, it didn’t meet its target, but FCA will continue to grow in 2018. The company will benefit from its latest launches which will impact four of its top 5 markets: USA and Canada, Brazil and China. The best thing of the growth is that it will come from profitable segments like SUV and Trucks, so the company is likely to close 2018 with higher revenues and profits. The bad news is that we continue to see the same pattern of previous years: the positive side of the company continues to be Jeep and Ram brands, and growth is still limited as the company launches very few new cars each year. With 5 million units sold, FCA is still far away from VW Group, Toyota and Renault-Nissan.

19 thoughts on “My own forecast: FCA will sell more than 5m cars in 2018. Happy new year!”

What do you think of the Tipo sales numbers? You predicted that it wouldn’t sell more than 100k models, yet here we are…

And although I do appreciate your analysis, I think your subjective opinion and constant bashing is getting a bit tiresome…

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Gabriel says:

03/01/2018 at 17:31

If you’re tired then you’re free too propose your own analysis or stop reading this brilliant blog.

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Felipe says:

04/01/2018 at 16:03

Thanks for your comment Pedro. Happy new year!

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Charles says:

12/03/2018 at 01:39

I love FCA,and I hope they never merge. I am sure they can do it alone. Look at Honda,Subaru and a few others who don’t have the brand name FCA has. I know I can’t save FCA,but I will do my part. I currently own a Fiat 500 Abarth,and a Maserati Gran Tourismo. I owned 2 Alfas in the pass,and hope to soon buy a Giulia and Stelvio QV and a Lavante,then my dream Ferrari.

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Actually i did not see much bashing in this article…
But i might have seen too many flowers…
1) I hope the (few) new models will arrive on schedule…
2) I hope they sell as much as forecasted…
For instance in FIAT, 2018 will be a desert of new models… let us hope that changes after Marchionne…

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https://passioneautoitaliane.blogspot.pt/2018/01/elenco-novita-fiat-in-dettaglio-dalla.html

Felipe, do you think this is credible information?

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Felipe says:

04/01/2018 at 16:07

Passione Auto Italiane is a good site, and sometimes very well informed. However, this time I’m afraid the information about the future plans of FCA is not accurate, as not even FCA knows what it will be launching in the coming years. They say there will be a new Punto and then a 500 5-doors, and that the company will launch a Fiat D-SUV by 2022. Remember that any plan that there is at the moment (if it exists) is due to change after Marchionne leaves.

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One interesting fact: the Compass will surpass half a million annual sales in 2018. That will make it the most sold model in FCA’s range correct?
Probably even more than the Ram pick-ups. And its sales will be spread out throught the five continents.

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Ferrari statistics are no taken in count into FCA group? or Ferrari is no longer part of the group.

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Anonymous says:

16/01/2018 at 20:34

Not part of FCA anymore

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Excellent blog and facts are interesting. They need more launches in India market too.

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Your Fiat Forecast is too negative. Panda,500 and Spider sales will be flat or very minor losses <5%.

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Hi, it looks like Maserati sales are a bit confusing, on your page is 45k but carsitaly shows 51.5k in 2017?

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Felipe says:

02/02/2018 at 01:58

Hi. As stated in the charts, my 2017 numbers were estimates, as there were no official results by the time I published this article. Carsitaly presented the final results: 51.5k vehicles shipped.

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